Meteorological data prediction over selected stations in Sub-Sahara Africa: Leveraging on Machine Learning Algorithm

Segun Adebayo, Francis Olatunbosun Aweda, Isaac Adewale Ojedokun, James A Agbolade

Abstract


This study investigated selected meteorological data prediction leveraging on a Machine Learning Algorithm Approach over five selected stations in Nigeria. The algorithm of Machine Learning was explored using weather parameters such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction and relative humidity to predict the rainfall rate. In the results, five Gaussian models (i.e., Rational Quadratic, Squared Exponential, Matern 5/2, Exponential and Optimized GPR) revealed different Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) with prediction speeds ranging from 15000 to 26000 and the training time included 7.936, 1.8923, 2.3701, 3.267 and 282.19, respectively. The predicted response as against the true response for the two models shows a linear graph passing through the origin which confirmed a perfect regression model, where all the points lie on a diagonal line. Therefore, the relationship between MSE, MAE and RMSE for different models revealed that the optimized GPR has a better performance as compared to others. More so, visualizing the relationship between the output variable (rainfall) and each input variable reveals that some input variables (relative humidity, rainfall, pressure, wind speed and direction) have a strong correlation with the output variable (rainfall), with others having a noisy relationship which is not very clear.

Keywords: Atmospheric Physics, Gaussian Model, Machine Learning, meteorological data, statistical model.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abatan AA, Abiodun BJ, Lawal KA, Gutowski WJ. 2016. Trends in extreme temperature over Nigeria from percentile-based threshold indices. International Journal of Climatology 36(6): 2527–2540.

Abatan AA, Osayomi T, Akande SO, Abiodun BJ, Gutowski WT. 2018. Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria. Theorical and Applied Climatology 131(3–4):1261–1272.

Adebayo S. Aweda FO, Ojedokun IA, Olapade OT. 2022. Refractive Index Perception and Prediction of Radio wave through Recursive Neural Networks using Meteorological Data Parameters. International Journal of Engineering 35(4): 810-818. https://doi.org/10.5829/IJE.2022.35.04A.21.

Adler RF, Gu G, Sapiano M, Wang JJ, Huffman GJ. 2017. Global Precipitation: Means, Variations and Trends During the Satellite Era (1979–2014). Surveys in Geophysics 38(4):679–99.

Ackerley D, Berry G, Jakob C, Reeder MJ, Schwendike J. 2015. Summertime precipitation over northern Australia in AMIP simulations from CMIP5. Quaterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 141:1753– 1768.

Ajayi VO, Ilori OW. 2020. Projected Drought Events over West Africa Using RCA4 Regional Climate Model. Earth Systems and Environment 4:29-348. https://doi.org/10.1007s41748-020-00153-x.

Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein-Tank AMG et al 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 111(5): 1–22.

Almazroui M, Saeed F, Saeed S et al. 2020. Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment 4:455-475.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x

Asfaw A, Simane B, Hassen A, Bantider A. 2018. Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in north-central Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin. Weather Climate Extremes: 29–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.12.002

Aweda FO, Samson TK. 2020a. Modelling the Earth’s Solar Irradiance across some Selected Stations in Sub-Sahara Region of Africa. Iranian (Iranica) Journal of Energy and Environment 11(3): 204-211. doi: 10.5829/ijee.2020.11.03.05.

Aweda FO, Oyewole JA, Fashae JB, Samson TK. 2020b. Variation of the Earth’s Irradiance over Some Selected Towns in Nigeria. Iranian (Iranica) Journal of Energy and Environment 11(4): 301-307.

doi: https://doi.org/10.5829/ijee.2020.11.04.08.

Aweda FO, Adebayo S, Samson TK, Ojedokun IA. 2021a. Modelling Net Radiative Measurement of Meteorological Parameters Using MERRA-2 Data in Sub-Sahara African Town. Iranian (Iranica) Journal of Energy and Environment (IJEE)12(3): 173-180.

Aweda FO, Adeniji AA, Akinpelu JA, Ayodele JA. 2021b. Analysis of rainfall trends and variabilities for three decades in Sub–Sahara Africa. Ruhuna Journal of Science12(1): 55–63.

http://doi.org/10.4038/rjs.v12i1.100

Aweda FO, Olufemi SJ, Agbolade JO. 2022. Meteorological Parameters Study and Temperature Forecasting in Selected Stations in Sub-Sahara Africa using MERRA-2 Data. Nigerian Journal of Technological Development 19(1):80-91. https://doi.org/10.4314/njtdv19i1.9.

Ayanlade A, Radeny M, Morton JF, Muchaba T. Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa. Science of The Total Environment 630:728–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.196.

Bombardier RJ, Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Reboita M. S. 2014. Precipitation over eastern South America and the South Atlantic Sea surface temperature during neutral ENSO periods. Climate Dynamics 42(5-6): 1553–1568.

Driouech F, ElRhaz K, Moufouma-Okia W et al. 2020.Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate. Earth System Environment 4:477-492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00169-3

Eresanya EO, Ajayi VO, Daramola MT, Balogun R. 2018. Temperature Extremes over Selected Stations in Nigeria. Physical Science International Journal 20(1):1–10.

Gelaro R, McCarty W, Suarez MJ, Todling R, Molod A, Takacs L et al. 2017. The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). American Meteorological Society 30(14): 54190-54154.

Gil-Alana LA. 2012. Long memory, seasonality and time trends in the average monthly temperatures in Alaska. Theoritical Applied Climatology 108(3–4):385–396.

Ilori OW, Ajayi VO. 2020. Change detection and trend analysis of future temperature and rainfall over West Africa. Earth System Environment 4: 493-512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00174-6

Keggenhoff I, Elizbarashvili M, Amiri-Farahani A, King L. 2014. Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over Georgia, 1971-2010. Weather Climate Extremes 4: 75–85.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.05.001

Liu C. 2011. Rainfall contributions from precipitation systems with different sizes, convective intensities, and durations over the tropics and subtropics. Journal of Hydrometeorology 12(3): 394–412.

Liu G, Wu R. 2016. Spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation events spanning different numbers of days over Asia. International Journal of Climatology 36(5): 2288–22302.

Nguyen P, Thorstensen A, Sorooshian S, Hsu K, AghaKouchak A, Ashouri H, et al. 2018.

Global precipitation trends across spatial scales using satellite observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99(4):689–97.

Odjugo PA. 2006. An analysis of rainfall patterns in Nigeria. Global Journal of Environmental Sciences 4 (2):139-145. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/gjes.v4i2.2455.

Oguntunde PG, Abiodun BJ, Lischeid G. 2011. Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901-2000. Journal of Hydrology 411(3–4): 207–218. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.037.

Oluwatobi A. 2016. Analysis of trend and variability of atmospheric temperature in Ijebu-Ode, Southwest Nigeria. International Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Soil Science. 06(02): 25–31.

Priyan K. 2015. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall in Anand District of Gujarat State. Aquat Procedia 4(2015):713–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.092

Ragatoa DS, Ogunjobi KO, Okhimamhe AA, Francis SD, Adet LA. 2018. Trend Analysis of Temperature in Selected Stations in Nigeria Using Three Different Approaches. Scientific Research 1–17.

Rahmstorf S, Foster G, Cahill N. 2017. Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls. Environmental Research Letters 12(5) 054001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825.

Rauscher SA, Coppola E, Piani C, Giorgi F. 2010. Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal precipitation over Europe. Climate Dynamics 35(4): 685–711.

Subash N, Sikka AK. 2014. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India. Theoritical and Applied Climatology: 117:449–62.

Sun Q, Miao C, Duan Q, Wang Y. 2015. Temperature and precipitation changes over the Loess Plateau between 1961 and 2011, based on high-density gauge observations. Global Planet Change. 132:1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.05.011

Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G. K, Tignor MMB, Allen SK, Boschung J et al. 2013. Climate change 2013 the physical science basis: Working Group I Contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Clim Chang 2013 Phys Sci Basis Work Gr I Contrib to Fifth Assess Rep Intergov Panel Climate Change 1–1535.

Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB. 2003. The changing character of precipitation. Bulletin of American Meteorology Society 84(9):1205-1217+1161.

Trenberth KE. 2003. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research 47(1–2):123–138.

van Wilgen NJ, Goodall V, Holness S, Chown SL, Mcgeoch MA. 2016. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns in South Africa’s national parks. International Journal of Climatology 36(2):706–821.

Williams AP, Funk C, Michaelsen J, Rauscher SA, Robertson I, Wils THG et al. 2012. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Climate Dynamics 39(9–10): 2307–2328.

Yao C, Qian W, Yang S, Lin Z. 2010. Regional features of precipitation over Asia and summer extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia and their associations with atmospheric-oceanic conditions. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 106(1): 57–73.

Zeng W, Yu Z, Wu S, Qin J. 2016. Changes in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation events and their link with elevation in Sichuan province, China. International Journal of Climatology 36(5): 2303–2322.e.2022.1696511.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons Licence
Ruhuna Journal of Science by University of Ruhuna is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

eISSN: 2536-8400

Print ISSN: 1800-279X (Before 2014)