Analysis of rainfall trends and variabilities for three decades in Sub – Sahara Africa

Francis Olatunbosun Aweda, Adetunji A. Adeniji, Jacob A. Akinpelu, Ayodele J. Abiodun

Abstract


Rainfall trend is an important climatic factor that influences agricultural products, groundwater production, drainage planning, commercial and industrial activities. The research aims to determine the trends and variability of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall for 30 years (from 1980 to 2010) in Sokoto (13.0059° N, 5.2476° E) and Maiduguri (11. 8333° N, 13.1500° E) using archives data obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet), Oshodi Lagos Nigeria. Statistical models were used to analyze the data. The results reveal that the maximum rainfall recorded was 371.60 mm at Maiduguri station and 374.90 mm at Sokoto station which shows a higher rainfall peak in Sokoto than Maiduguri. The coefficient of variation in the Sokoto station (126.39%) was higher than that of Maiduguri station (61.78%) which indicates that there was more rainfall variability in Sokoto than in Maiduguri. Seasonally, the average rainfall recorded in both stations was 61.78% and 126.39% respectively. No rainfall was recorded in January, February, and November for Maiduguri station, more so, no rainfall was recorded in January, November, and December for Sokoto station. According to Man-Kendal trend analysis, significant trends (p<0.5) were observed in Maiduguri and Sokoto. Therefore, the modelled statistical approach on rainfall trends and variability revealed that the peak month of annual rainfall is between June and September for the two stations. It can be recommended that the government should make favourable policies to utilize the rainfall received during this period to store more water in reservoirs and construction of water channels across the country.

Keywords: Atmospheric, Kolmogorov, Mann-Kendal, Rainfall, water resources.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abaje IB, Ati OF, Iguisi EO. 2010. An Analysis of Rainfall Trends in Kafanchan, Kaduna State, Nigeria. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences 2(2): 89-96.

Abdul Aziz OI, Burn DH. 2006. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. Journal of Hydrology 319(1): 282-294.

Adefolalu DO. 2007. Climate change and economic sustainability in Nigeria. In: Paper presented at the International Conference on Climate Change and Economic Sustainability held at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Enugu, Nigeria, 12–14 June 2007.

Akinsanola AA, Ogunjobi KO. 2014. Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variability over Nigeria. Global Journal of Human-Social Science (B) Geography,Geo-Sciences, Environmental Disaster Management 14(3): 10-28.

Anghileri D, Pianosi F, Soncini-Sessa R. 2014. Trend detection in seasonal data: from hydrology to water resources. Journal of Hydrology 511: 171–179.

Goud S, Biradar V, Janagoudar BS, Shanwad UK, Sreenivas AG. 2015. Implications of rainfall distribution pattern and its variability for crop planning of crops: A study in Northeastern transitional zone of Karnataka. Karnataka Journal of Agricultural Sciences Spl. Issue 28(5): 746-752.

Houghton JT, Meiro Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenburg A, Maskell K. 1996. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Climatic Change 584 pp.

Miao LI, Jun X, Dejuan M. 2012. Long-term Trend Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation for Beijing, China. Journal of Resources and Ecology 3(1): 064-072.

Mondal A, Kundu S, Mukhopadhyay A. 2012. Rainfall Trend Analysis by Mann-Kendall Test: A Case Study of North-Eastern Part of Cuttack District, Orrissa. International Journal of Geology, Earth, and Environmental Sciences 2(1): 70-78.

Oguntunde PG, Abiodun BJ, Lischeid G. 2011. Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. Journal of Hydrology 411: 207-218.

Oloruntade AJ, Mogaji KO, Imoukhuede OB. 2018. Rainfall trends and variability over Onitsha, Nigeria. Ruhuna Journal of Science. 9(2), 127-139.

Salami T, Maatta A, Anttila, P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T. 2002. Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates. Publications on Air Quality, No. 31. Helsinki, Finland.

Shahid S. 2010. Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology 30(15): 2299-2313.

Smith M. 2000. The application of climatic data for planning and management of sustainable rain-fed and irrigated crop production. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 103: 99–108.

Wang D, Hejazi M, Cai X, Valocchi AJ. 2011. Climate change impact on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in central Illinois. Water Resources Research 47: W09527.

Xu Z, Liu Z, Fu G, Chen Y. 2010. Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years. Journal of Arid Environment 74: 256–267.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons Licence
Ruhuna Journal of Science by University of Ruhuna is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

eISSN: 2536-8400

Print ISSN: 1800-279X (Before 2014)